Mike Lawler, Republican candidate for the U.S. House of Representatives in the New York 17th district, and his sister-in-law Kara Lawler wait for election results at the Pearl River Hilton Nov. 8, 2022. Lawler defeated New York’s first openly homosexual Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney (D– N.Y.). Photo courtesy Yahoo.com.
Of the House races called so far, 96% were won by the biggest spender, a new OpenSecrets analysis found.
Republicans only need to flip six seats to regain a majority in the House, and 42 remain uncalled as of Thursday morning. Democrats have flipped six Republican-held seats , according to POLITICO. The GOP has flipped formerly Democratic 16 seats – although it is in danger of losing the seat held by firebrand conservative Rep. Lauren Boebert (R–Colo.).
Five of the seats flipped by GOP candidates are rated toss-ups by the Cook Political Report, including four in New York. In a stunning upset on Tuesday, Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney (D– N.Y.) lost his unexpectedly tight House race against Republican nominee Mike Lawler in New York’s 17th Congressional District.
But despite the defeat of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee chair, Democrats have performed better than expected in the House, defying predictions of a “red wave” of Republican victories.
While Democrats are still projected to lose control of the U.S. House, Democratic House candidates across the board outraised Republicans by an average of $130,000 through Oct. 19. Incumbent Democrats have outraised Republican challengers by more than $1 million in several Democratic toss-up races that have yet to be called.
In Nevada’s 1st Congressional District, Democratic Rep. Dina Titus outraised Republican challenger Mark Robertson by $1.8 million. In California’s 47th Congressional District, Democratic incumbent Rep. Katie Porter massively outraised her Republican opponent Scott Baugh, with Porter raising $22.6 million – the third-largest campaign haul of any House candidate through Oct. 19 – compared to just $2.7 million raised by Baugh. But outside groups poured over $9.2 million into the race opposing Porter, effectively boosting Baugh and closing that fundraising gap.
Some Democrats in the danger zone managed to use their war chests to hold onto their seats.
In Michigan’s newly drawn 7th Congressional District, incumbent Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin defeated Republican state Sen. Tom Barrett in one of the most competitive U.S. House elections. While Slotkin had a fundraising advantage of $6.2 million over Barrett, outside groups poured more money into this House race than any other this election cycle.
Outside groups spent $26.4 million on the race, including nearly $11.3 million against the incumbent and $2.8 million boosting Barrett, while those groups supporting Slotkin spent $1.4 million supporting her and $10.8 million attacking her challenger.
While Democrat Maxwell Alejandro Frost in Florida’s 10th Congressional District was elected to be the first Generation Z member of Congress on Tuesday, Gen Z Republican nominee Karoline Leavitt lost to incumbent Rep. Chris Pappas (D–N.H.) in New Hampshire’s 1st Congressional District.
Pappas ran unopposed in New Hampshire’s Democratic primary, which meant he carried much of his $4.6 million war chest into the general election while Leavitt spent millions to win the state’s competitive GOP primary. Leavitt, whose campaign reported raising nearly $3.1 million through Oct. 19.
Despite backing “establishment” candidate Matt Mowers in the primary, GOP House leadership pivoted to back Leavitt after her primary victory after Leavitt said she would back House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R–Calif.) to become speaker if Republicans flipped the chamber.
McCarthy is running unopposed to become speaker, according to the Wall Street Journal, which means he could hold the highest seat in the House.
A key victory in Virginia’s 2nd Congressional District – where state Sen. Jen Kiggans (R) defeated Rep. Elaine Luria (D–Va.) – may help McCarthy cement his GOP majority. A nurse practitioner and Navy veteran, Kiggans was one of four Republicans in the Virginia Senate to vote for a $70 million “forensic audit” of the state’s 2020 election in April 2020.
But just down the road in Virginia’s 7th Congressional District, Republican nominee Yesli Vega also raised $3 million ahead of her loss to incumbent Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger, whose campaign reported raising $8.3 million.
Voters first elected Spanberger to Congress in 2018, upsetting what had been a Republican stronghold for 36 years. Spanberger has led the charge to ban members of Congress from trading stocks, an act supported by a majority of the public.
While Democrats held off the overwhelming red wave pundits predicted would sweep over the House, Republicans are gaining ground in some key races.
McCarthy told CBS the GOP “will be in the majority and [House Speaker] Nancy Pelosi will be in the minority” on Wednesday, but it could be days before Americans know which party will control the House for the next two years.
Taylor Giorno and Keith Newell write for Open Secrets where this article first appeared. Please “like”, comment, share with a friend, and donate to support The Standard on this page.
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