The best economy in years? Really? With inflation the highest in 40 years? High inflation rates typically raise the risk of higher interest rates to slow down the rate of inflation.
I’m not an economist, an expert on the economy and I don’t claim to be either, although I did get an “A” in 3rd year economics while in college, albeit a long time ago. But, and that’s a BIG BUT, the economy looks like it’s tanking, getting worse by the day as compared to the past, and will soon be gone straight to hell unless said economy does an amazing back flip! That said, are we in for a recession in 2023?
Let’s take a look at what economists say and the facts about the economy that are showing and what has taken place since Joe Biden and his Democrat administration has taken office.
A just released Forbes Magazine article on November 15th, said that a Bank of America survey recently showed 77% of fund managers think a recession is likely in 2023. The same survey showed 92% of fund managers say 2023 will suffer below average growth and above average inflation likely lifting interest rates even higher. Not surprising is that 32% of fund managers say that inflation staying high is the biggest risk to the economy.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics said in a report that “all items in the Consumer Price Index rose 1.4 percent in 2020.” This was smaller than the 2019 increase of 2.3 percent. According to the BLS report that same index rose overall at a 1.7-percent average annual rate over the past 10 years. Economically it appears the country was moving in the right direction concerning the CPI.
That 1.7% increase over ten years is what we want to pay attention to. We all know prices change from time to time and may slightly fluctuate from year to year. So, normal variations in price occur, but great variations in prices, continually, and especially for long periods of time are not normal and indicate that something extraordinary is taking place.
Joe Biden took office January 20, 2021, under somewhat unusual circumstances. A disputed election. Barricades were erected on January 6th to surround the US Capitol building. I was there and the barricades had to already have been prepared to be moved in as quickly as was done. The barricade was erected under direction of Democrat Speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi. The swearing in ceremony was inaccessible to the general population to actually witness. This was the first time in US history that such had ever happened. Many are still trying to figure out why it was deemed necessary to fence in the process. Was there more going on than meets the eye? And No, a so-called “insurrection” was not taking place and would not have given enough time even had for the barricades to go up so quickly! I know many who were there and the streets were bare January 20th.
Following the highly contested and disputed election, and prior to his taking office, the economy appeared to be in pretty good shape.
Each reporting cycle since Joe Biden has taken office has reflected a higher consumer inflation rate, in fact the inflation rates have hit 40 year highs. Here are the monthly inflation rates since January 2021:
It was reported in January 2021 that the U.S. inflation rate rose 1.4% in 2020. That marked the slowest yearly rate of inflation increase since 2015. In February 2021, the annual U.S. inflation rate was steady at 1.4%, but consumer prices rose in January to the highest in 5 months.
In March 2021, it was reported that annual inflation increased the most in over a year, driven up by energy which had previously logged 11 straight annual pricing declines. Energy and food prices increased together year-over-year for the first time since February 2020.
April 2021 the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that U.S. inflation hit a 2 1/2-Year high with consumer prices in March 2021 logging the biggest gain in 8 1/2 Years.
In May 2021, the BLS reported that US inflation was on the quickest uptick pace since 2008 all while consumer prices surged in April that year.
The June 2021 report showed that U.S. inflation was the “hottest annually since August 2008” and that consumer prices rose strongly in May.
The government reported in July 2021 that the annual inflation rate was the quickest in nearly 13 years, and consumer prices rose the most since 2008.
In August 2021, the government reported that inflation remained near a 13-year high on an annual basis even though CPI had slowed in July. September 2021 showed a “cooling” of inflation much to the relief of families around the country. Even with that ‘cooling’, gas prices increased 42.1% year-over-year.
In November 2021, just one year ago, inflation was reported to have risen to the highest rate since 1990! All energy topped that rise with a 30% rise in one year! Gas alone rose 49.6% year over year! And food prices rose 5.3% in one year!
So, in one year’s time since Joe Biden assumed office gas prices rose 49% and all energy together, including home heating fuel, diesel, propane, gas, etc, rose 49.6%—almost 50%!
Just before Christmas 2021 we got the news that the current administration had allowed inflation to rise to the highest level in 39 years! This was following energy independence under President Trump for the first time in many years. The US could have maintained that energy independence but the Biden Administration decided that the very first act he would make was to stop work on a oil pipeline that put many thousands out of work and contributed heavily to the astronomical fuel prices we are now paying at the pump, for heating fuel, trucking—which adds to the higher prices on the retail store shelf and more. This reminds me of the movie “Wizard of Oz” and the Tin Man who wished he had a brain!
We welcomed 2022 with the news that U.S. inflation rose 7% in 2021, thus marking the highest rate of inflation since 1982! In February we were met again with news of the highest rate of inflation since 1982 with inflation at 7.5%!
March 2022 saw U.S. Inflation at 7.9%, again the highest since 1982 as prices continued to surge for gas, food and shelter. This rate of inflation is decimating the middle class and lower wage earners in this country. Many people were losing jobs, businesses and homes—and still are! This is the highest inflation in over 40 years!
April this yaer saw the highest inflation since 1981, that’s the highest in 41 years! Every consumer item from eggs, to poultry, to fruits and vegetables and every other basic necessity for survival saw needless increases due to inflation and mismanagement of the economy.
May 2022 was crying time again as inflation slowed but remained at 40 year highs. Unfortunately, the June report of the economy showed another 8.6% increase in inflation! May posted double digit inflation increases in every consumer item except the fruits and vegetables category and food away from home! In fact meats, poultry, fish and eggs topped at 14.2% increase! I was shocked when saw eggs at over $4 for a dozen!
If there was a prize for inflation out of control the Democrats and Joe Biden administration would win hands down! The June 2022 government economic report showed inflation reaching another 40 year high milestone with CPI at 8.6%! Food, energy and shelter prices contributed the most in driving up inflation-—on a monthly and annual basis. Grocery prices saw their biggest 12-month gain in over 43 years. Inflation data showed other categories of price increases as well, like spiking airline fares and a return to higher vehicle prices–both new and used. Gasoline inflation in the annual period ended June at 59.9%—the highest since March 1980 under Democrat Jimmy Carter!
As if the June report was not bad enough, the July 2022 report came in with a 41 year high in inflation and the CPI up 9.1%! Again energy, food and shelter prices accelerated from a year prior, as did costs for items like vehicles, clothing, and healthcare. We were waiting for this all to end and we would wake up but the nightmare continued.
August 2022 brought some relief as inflation dropped to “only” 8.5% and gas prices fell somewhat. Again, all fuel prices increased with gas up 44%, fuel oil up an amazing 75.6%, electricity up 15.2%, and natural gas up 30.5%!
As bad as the economy is, now Dominion Energy in South Carolina wants to jump on ratepayers and force a rate increase of almost 14% on consumers and almost 17% on businesses! They have a hearing on November 28th that you probably won’t be able to participate in unless you signed up to do so October 21st. They take their increase for approval to the Public Service Commission November 29th.
September 2022 brought no relief again, as inflation stayed steady at 8.3%. Energy slowed to 23.8% down from 41.6% in June. Every major food category was up over 10.6% including milk and dairy at over 16%!
The October report showed an inflation rate of 8.2% with American consumers paying more for all goods and services and again the highest inflation in 40 years! Yes, gas prices may have come down some at the pump, thankfully, but food and shelter prices have stayed high and increased.
This month, November 2022, the inflation eased as the CPI slowed to 7.7%. This was the first time the annual inflation rate increased below 8% since February and it was the lowest since January. Prices remained elevated for food, shelter, and energy. Food was under 10% increase for the first time since early this year, but staple items like eggs and milk were still astronomically high on the shelf!
US consumers have seen the skyrocketing inflation and have many felt the pinch in their purse strings because of it. What seems to baffle most people I’ve spoken with is how the Democrats could have scored so well across the country in the 2022 mid term elections when overall they have wrecked the economy, hurt the middle and lower income wage earners putting their businesses out of business and many losing their jobs, and hurt everybody with soaring energy prices at the pump for personal cars and for trucking, and soon to see even higher heating fuel increases. Experts predict a recession is on the way. Yes, they’ve been wrong before, but it looks like they may be right on the money this time, we’ll have to watch and see.
Many think electronic voting devices have something to do with wrong results in the election, especially when all the pundits and experts predicted a “red wave”. Remember what Joseph Stalin said? “Those who vote decide nothing. Those who count the votes decide everything.”
Ironically, in January 2022, Joe Biden said something that sounds eerily similar to Stalin. When asked about election legislation, the president of the United States of America stated, “It’s no longer about who gets to vote; it’s about making it harder to vote. It’s about who gets to count the vote and whether your vote counts at all.” Hold on to your hats, the upcoming months may blow us all away!
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