We are within 50 days of the November 3rd general election. As the media continues to do the bidding of the Biden/Harris ticket with farcical stories seemingly daily, the race is decided state-by-state in the Electoral College. Looking at polling for the states, there is some questionable methodology, so let’s take a look at the states that matter with the information we have:
Arizona (11 electoral votes, Trump +3.5 in 2016): In a state that has been Republican for decades, Biden has 
seen a steady lead. In 2018, the Democrats picked up one of the state’s US senate seats. Arizona has seen a pretty swift move to the left, primarily from Maricopa County. Maricopa, which contains Phoenix and several large suburbs. Maricopa, one of the nation’s largest counties, used to be one of the nation’s few large Republican-leaning counties but has become more Democrat as many urban areas have. The state remains a toss-up as it is not clear if it has moved left quite this quickly.
Florida (29, Trump +1.2): Florida used to be the must-win state. Now, it is a state the Republicans can’t afford to lose. It isn’t generally recognized nationally, but Florida votes strongly Republican at every level of government. Trump appears to have made gains amongst Hispanic voters while losing some white voters, particularly seniors, who are a large voting bloc in the Sunshine State. Looks like a toss-up right now but if this state gets called for Biden it would foreshadow a rough night for the president.
Georgia (16, Trump +5.1): For years, “experts” have predicted that Georgia would eventually turn to the Democrats due to the growth of the Atlanta suburbs, which has imported a less conservative electorate. This could finally be coming true. Hillary Clinton gained ground from recent presidential elections in Georgia. On the basis of the GOP just having won every statewide office in 2018, I would still put the Peach State as leaning towards Trump.
Michigan (16, Trump +0.3): The president became the first Republican to carry Michigan since 1988. This race will be decided in the state’s suburbs as the urban areas are even more Democrat than most. Rural Michigan will go very heavily GOP. In the 2018 midterm elections, the suburbs swung back to Obama-type numbers. Will Biden’s more union-focused message help with Michigan voters? Toss-up at this time as voter enthusiasm for Trump has shown to be much higher.
Minnesota (10, Clinton +1.5): Minnesota is the state the 
president is putting the most energy into flipping to his side. The state last voted Republican in 1972. There are some encouraging signs for Trump, the riots that started in Minneapolis were squelched when Gov. Tim Walz finally allowed the National Guard to enter. Recently, several elected Democrats endorsed the president and police organizations are jumping behind him. Conversely, there are some bad signs. Minnesota recently held their statewide (non-presidential) primary elections and Democrats more than doubled the turnout of Republicans. While we should take polling with a grain of salt, Biden leads by a pretty healthy margin in every recent poll. Lean Biden.
Nevada (6, Clinton +2.4): Nevada could be a more attainable state for the president. Nevada has been a toss-up state for quite some time that has made a very slight move towards the Democrats and that slight movement has resulted in electing a lot of them. The Nevada electorate has become more frustrated with the governor’s strict lockdowns as time has passed. This is one state where the Democrats mail-in ballot scheme could have an effect on the outcome. The governor has ordered ballots to be sent to all registered voters (unrequested) and he has given the okay for unregistered ballot harvesting where organizers pick up ballots from people and turn them in themselves. As long as the president can have a strong performance in the rest of the state outside of Las Vegas, he has a good chance at a pickup. Toss up.
New Hampshire (4, Clinton +0.3): The Granite State has been consistently competitive for the past 20 years although a Republican hasn’t carried it since 2000. This was the most closely contested state in 2016. It could be a tough road for the president this time around. The Northeast has shown a drop in popularity for the president. In addition, what made NH a competitive state is that is used to be the old cliché of “socially liberal, fiscally conservative.” In recent years it hasn’t shown to be as fiscally conservative. The NH population pays as much attention to elections as any other state so I would expect the president to still make a run of it. Leans Biden.
North Carolina (15, Trump +3.7): The growth in population in the liberal research triangle as well as Mecklenburg moving from a toss-up county to heavily Democrat gives Democrats a strong chance nowadays in statewide elections. The state also has fiercely competitive races for governor and senate this year making it a busy battleground. The rest of the state outside of these areas (and Asheville) is very conservative, which makes it a battle of turning out base voters. Lean Trump.
Ohio (18, Trump +8.1): Like Florida, Ohio now elects Republicans at every level. Even in the strong Democrat year of 2018, Republicans were elected to every statewide constitutional office. Democrats aren’t necessarily targeting the Buckeye State. A close election here would show trouble elsewhere for the president. Likely Trump.
Pennsylvania (20 votes): Democrats knew they were in trouble in 2016 when Pennsylvania was called for the president, becoming the first Republican to win the state since 1988. The Keystone State has tended to vote Republican pretty regularly outside of presidential races and now appears to be the best chance of a hold for Trump (compared to Michigan and Wisconsin.) Biden plays up his roots as being from working class Scranton, PA (where he moved from when he was seven years old) but I’m betting the left’s extreme environmental agenda will come back to haunt him. Toss up.
Texas (38, Trump +9): For a long time a heavily Republican state, Texas is tacking to the left. They are still electing Republicans but at a closer margin as the state’s large population of suburbs has move from strongly Republican to more in the toss-up range. Democrats are also making a strong move at state legislative seats here. Trump should win the state this year but pay attention to the years to come. If the Democrats take Texas, it’s game over. Likely Trump.
Wisconsin (10, Trump +0.7): The exclamation point was put on Trump’s 2016 victory when he captured Wisconsin, a first since 1984 for the GOP. The Badger State sets up well for either party to make a run in every election. There are two large, far left cities surrounded by a conservative working class in the rest of the state. A key factor could be the battleground area of Kenosha. Usually, whoever wins the area also wins statewide. The voters don’t appreciate the leftist-led riots that burned down a significant portion of the city and brought an array of violence. In a race this close, those kinds of things can make a difference, even for suburban areas around the state. Toss up.
State where Trump could surprise: Oregon. The state used to be a much closer state before the past decade. While it is a liberal state, the Portland riots are far outpacing other issues as far as the electorate is concerned, providing an opening to take advantage of the negligence of local elected officials.
State where Biden could surprise: Missouri. The state used to be a toss-up state but has moved to be strongly Republican. Public polling has consistently showed the race to be much closer than the landslide margin of 2016. Biden doesn’t stand much of a chance here but should he get an easy when nationwide, the Show Me State could fall in his corner.
Not included: Colorado, Iowa, New Mexico and Virginia are often thrown in as battleground states but these should be a hold for the same party as they favor one party pretty comfortably.
Keep in mind that a lot of voters just want somebody they like instead of President Trump. When the media covers up the mental incapacity of Joe Biden as well as his global corruption, it makes it a lot easier for Biden to win. The president has a cushion of 74 electoral votes from 2016 to play with. As you can see, a shift in just a few states can change the outcome.
Preston Baines can be reached on Parler/Twitter @prestonbaines and at prestonbaines@gmail.com.
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