The Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority after picking up two seats in the 2018 midterm elections. Now, the consensus for the November 3rd battle of the US Senate is that the Republicans have a fight on their hands. Whoever wins the presidency, they will need the Senate to help pass their agenda, particularly with judicial appointments. Let’s catch up on the hottest races as voters around the country begin to fill out their absentee ballots.

Tommy Tuberville beat Jeff Sessions in Alabama primary for U.S. Senate

Alabama (Democrat controlled): In 2017, Democrat Sen. Doug Jones won the special election to fill the seat of then Attorney General Jeff Sessions in a huge upset in heavily Republican Alabama. This year, he doesn’t have fortune of facing former State Chief Justice Roy Moore. Both parties expect former Auburn football coach Tommy Tuberville to flip this seat to the Republican column. Tuberville defeated Session in this year’s GOP Primary amid a backlash from supporters of Trump. Tuberville should capture this seat easily for the GOP.

Arizona (GOP controlled): Republican Sen. Martha McSally lost her race for Arizona’s other senate seat in 2018, one of the GOP’s few low lights in the 2018 senate campaigns. McSally was given a reprieve when she was appointed by GOP Gov. Doug Ducey to fill the remainder of the term of the late Sen. John McCain. It looks like McSally has had trouble against Democrat and former Astronaut Mark Kelly. McSally’s moderate record and low key personality hasn’t gained traction in the state despite her storied history as an Air Force fighter pilot. Mark Kelly looks to be the likely winner of the race but expect it to be closer than the polls indicate. Arizona needs to show a pattern of electing Democrats before I can predict them to run away with elections.

Colorado (GOP controlled): Possibly the biggest pickup for the GOP in the 2014 midterm election was the election of young upstart Cory Gardner over an incumbent Democrat. Gardner was expected to be a new-age conservative but his identity has turned out to be a moderate who has failed to make much of an imprint. Former Gov. and presidential candidate John Hickenlooper is his opponent. Hickenlooper has recently been found guilty of multiple ethics violations from his time as governor, however he seems to be in good shape here. Expect the race to be a close one but Colorado has drifted further and further to the left over the last decade and it looks like Gardner will fall victim to the trend. This one leans Democrat.

Georgia Senator David Perdue

Georgia Seat #1 (GOP controlled): Republican and Dollar General tycoon Sen. David Perdue finds himself in a competitive bid for a second term. Democrats have nominated small businessman Jon Ossoff. Ossoff became known on the political map for nearly taking a special election for the Democrats in 2017. The Peach state is looked at as a test for just how far the Democrats have made inroads in the state. In 2014, polls showed Perdue in a close race but he ended it by winning fairly comfortably, I expect the same to happen here. The Democrats have increased their numbers but Georgia hasn’t quite made a turn. Georgia has a quirky election law where the race goes to a runoff a month later if one candidate doesn’t reach 50% + 1 on Election Day. Perdue carries this election by a decent margin.

Georgia Seat #2 (Republican controlled): GOP Gov. Brian Kemp riled a lot of President Trump supporters when he appointed millionaire businesswoman Kelly Loeffler to replace Johnny Isakson, who retired amid his fight with Parkinson’s Disease. GOP Rep. Doug Collins was passed over and was preferred by the president due to his staunch defense as the ranking member of the House Judiciary Committee during the impeachment trial. Loeffler has responded by being the most conservative member of the senate during her time and has received the endorsement of pro-life groups. She has pledged to spend at least $20 million of her own money for the campaign and has earned praise from the president. Collins has joined the race, a “jungle” primary where all parties compete and the top two advance to the general election if nobody reaches 50% + 1, which is almost assured. Three Democrats are in the race – Matt Lieberman, son of former Sen. Joe Lieberman, former US Attorney Ed Tarver and Pastor Raphael Warnock. Due to the math, Democrats face the possibility of being shut out of the race, as the GOP candidates repeatedly show to be the top two candidates in polling. Hard to predict but I’m guessing Loeffler wins the runoff in a close one. Republicans appear to be in the driver’s seat in this election.

Iowa (GOP controlled): GOP Sen. Joni Ernst easily flipped a Democrat-controlled senate seat in 2014. The farmer is now opposed by Democrat Urban Planner Theresa Greenfield for a seat that Democrats are targeting. The Democrats’ plan has a lot to do with their ability to make Iowa competitive this year. Iowa is demographically a Republican-favored state and has three of the most competitive seats for the House this year. I don’t believe the presidential race or the senate race will be all that close. Ernst wins.

Montana Senator Steve Daines

Montana (GOP controlled): While most think of Montana as a heavily Republican state, this mostly holds true during presidential elections and not others. Montana voters have an independent streak. Sen. Steve Daines picked up the seat for the Republicans in 2014. He faces a formidable challenger in Democrat Gov. Steve Bullock, who has been one of the few sensible Democrats during the COVID pandemic. Daines appears to be performing strongly so I would expect him to hold the seat for Republicans.

Maine (GOP controlled): The GOP’s most liberal senator, Susan Collins, appears to be in trouble for the seat she has held since 1996. Collins has been re-elected easily each time since her initial election. Collins faces State House Speaker Sara Gideon in the Democrat-leaning state. While Collins’ record hasn’t changed, she supported the nomination of Brett Kavanaugh for the Supreme Court. Interestingly, she decided to put her stamp of approval on Kavanaugh because he said he would not overturn the Roe v. Wade abortion decision. Despite that, Planned Parenthood has Collins in their cross hairs. Maine has a long history of electing liberal Republicans and I’m going to stick with that prediction this time. I believe Collins wins in a squeaker.

Michigan (Democrat controlled): Democrat Sen. Gary Peters is one of the lesser-known senators by his constituents. The first-term senator faces a challenge from Republican superstar John James, who made a closer-than-expected challenge to the state’s senior senator, Debbie Stabenow. James – a West Point graduate, military veteran and businessman – is a top prospect for the GOP to pick up a seat. I give a very slight lean to Peters.

Minnesota Sen. Tina Smith

Minnesota (Democrat controlled): Democrat Sen. Tina Smith won re-election in 2016 in a favorable year for Democrats. Polling shows that her GOP challenger Jason Lewis, a former congressman and radio show host, aligns closely with the president. I think Lewis would be an excellent senator, but at this time the seat leans Democrat just as the state does on the presidential level.

North Carolina (GOP controlled): Republican Sen. Thom Tillis picked up the seat for the GOP in 2014 and is facing a tough re-election just as Republicans always do in the Tar Heel state. More than any other state, NC has a transient population that doesn’t get accustomed to their elected officials. Tillis faces former State Sen. Cal Cunningham, a well-funded attorney. This race will be determined by the electorate the state actually faces as polling has typically been wrong statewide. This state looks like as pure a toss-up as there is.

SC Sen. Lindsey Graham

South Carolina (GOP controlled): GOP Sen. Lindsey Graham has easily carried the state every time since he was initially elected in 2002. Polling shows Graham in a tough race with Democrat lobbyist Jamie Harrison. Graham has a familiar problem for him, a segment of conservative voters who don’t support him. Harrison has been a high-powered fundraiser, making this race a close one in polling. President Trump looks to win SC by at least 10 points, which will carry Graham over the finish line.

You can see the stakes in the US Senate elections this year. Make sure you show up for every election on the ballot.

Preston Baines can be reached on Parler/Twitter @prestonbaines and at prestonbaines@gmail.com.

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